Bernalillo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS65 KABQ 191121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning
  in addition to localized heavy rainfall will accompany
  thunderstorms each day. Burn scars remain the most susceptible
  to flash flooding.

- There is a moderate heat risk for lower elevation areas of the
  Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains each afternoon Saturday
  through at least Monday where highs climb into the upper 90s to
  near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Saturday begins with subtle changes in the synoptic scale pattern
over New Mexico as the far western periphery of an H5 high centered
over the southeastern CONUS spreads into eastern NM. The upper lows
over central Mexico and the northern Baja Peninsula become less
influential. As such, drier air aloft moves over the southeastern
third of the state entrenched with subsidence beneath the high. This
will act to shunt diurnally driven convection over the high terrain
to western and northern areas of the state, favoring a band from the
Gila NF to the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this
lowers the overall threat of flash flooding from locally heavy
rainfall, the threat will still be non-zero for area burn scars this
afternoon. Main threats from thunderstorms will be fairly typical
for the summer time; cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty erratic winds,
and small hail. This activity will try to spread into portions of
the Rio Grande Valley with scattered coverage at best. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorm activity over the Sangre de Cristos will
also spread across over the northeastern highlands and plains.
Highs will also climb into the upper 90s to near 100F across lower
elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains of NM
resulting in a moderate heat risk this afternoon. Temperatures
cool tonight alongside waning thunderstorm activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Sunday sees only very little changes to the synoptic scale setup
relative to Saturday. However, the main change will be the placement
of the main monsoonal plume of moisture shifting back east a bit
over NM. This will ramp up precipitation chances along the central
mountain chain relative to Saturday, and changes to the NBM PoPs
were made to adjust for this. An increased risk for burn scar flash
flooding where thunderstorms are favored to develop in the early
afternoon will result.

Monday and Tuesday sees the remnants of a weak area of vorticity
melded within the western fringe of the H5 high over the southern
CONUS move over eastern NM. This feature looks to help enhance
diurnally driven thunderstorm activity each afternoon and evening,
driving up precipitation chances and the threat for flash flooding
to start the work week. Thunderstorms developing over the high
terrain of central and western NM generally shifting northeastward
thru the late afternoon and evening over central and eastern NM will
be the rule each of these days.

Wednesday sees the beginning of a more textbook monsoon high
developing over the western CONUS, either over CO or further east
over TX/OK. Despite forecast uncertainty with where the high
develops, higher confidence lay with low-level monsoonal moisture
remaining trapped beneath the high over NM being recycled each day
thru diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Remnant showers have persisted overnight over portions of central
and western NM with one batch nearing KONM slowly waning this hour.
This activity and sky cover will slowly try to clear thru the
morning. Today`s round of thunderstorms will again favor
development over the central and western mountains with less
activity expected over the Sacramento Mts near KSRR and over the
eastern plains relative to areas further west and north.
Thunderstorm activity will again steadily move over surrounding
lower elevation areas including portions of the Rio Grande Valley thru
the late afternoon and evening hours. Erratic gusty outflows will
be possible from KSAF to KABQ, including areas further north and
south near KSKX and KONM. Prevailing southerly to southeasterlies
persist thru southeastern and east- central NM, including at
KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

No fire weather concerns thru the next seven days. Monsoonal
moisture remains rich with daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms
developing over the high terrain of central and western NM before
slowly moving over surrounding lower elevations in the late
afternoon and evening hours. Drier conditions with perhaps some
short-lived elevated fire weather will be present closer to the Four
Corners region. Otherwise, cloud-to-ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding on recent burn scars will
be the main threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  63  93  65 /   5   5   0  10
Dulce...........................  90  48  91  50 /  30  10  20  20
Cuba............................  88  59  89  59 /  30  20  20  30
Gallup..........................  88  55  89  56 /  40  30  40  20
El Morro........................  83  57  85  56 /  70  50  70  40
Grants..........................  86  55  88  57 /  60  40  60  40
Quemado.........................  83  58  85  57 /  70  50  80  40
Magdalena.......................  85  62  86  62 /  60  30  60  30
Datil...........................  82  56  84  56 /  70  50  70  30
Reserve.........................  88  55  90  54 /  70  50  80  30
Glenwood........................  92  59  94  59 /  70  40  70  30
Chama...........................  83  49  85  50 /  50  20  30  20
Los Alamos......................  83  62  85  62 /  60  20  40  30
Pecos...........................  85  59  87  59 /  50  30  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  55  86  56 /  70  20  40  20
Red River.......................  74  47  77  48 /  70  20  50  20
Angel Fire......................  78  43  80  43 /  70  20  50  20
Taos............................  85  53  88  54 /  50  20  30  20
Mora............................  82  53  85  53 /  70  30  40  20
Espanola........................  91  61  94  62 /  40  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  87  62  88  63 /  40  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  90  61  92  61 /  40  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  67  93  67 /  40  30  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  68  94  68 /  30  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  67  96  67 /  30  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  68  95  68 /  30  30  10  20
Belen...........................  95  64  96  64 /  30  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  95  67  96  67 /  30  20  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  95  64  96  65 /  30  20  10  20
Corrales........................  95  68  96  68 /  30  30  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  95  65  96  65 /  30  20  10  20
Placitas........................  91  65  92  65 /  30  30  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  94  68  95  67 /  30  30  10  20
Socorro.........................  95  67  97  67 /  30  20  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  61  89  60 /  40  30  20  20
Tijeras.........................  88  62  90  62 /  40  30  20  20
Edgewood........................  88  57  90  57 /  40  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  55  90  55 /  40  30  20  20
Clines Corners..................  83  59  85  59 /  40  30  20  20
Mountainair.....................  87  59  88  59 /  40  30  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  86  60  88  59 /  40  20  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  90  66  91  65 /  30  10  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  82  60  83  60 /  40  10  50  20
Capulin.........................  85  56  85  56 /  70  20  30  20
Raton...........................  89  54  90  56 /  60  20  40  20
Springer........................  89  55  92  56 /  50  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  85  56  88  57 /  50  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  92  65  94  65 /  30  20  10  20
Roy.............................  88  60  90  61 /  30  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  96  67  98  68 /  20  30   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  92  65  94  65 /  20  20   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  94  66  95  67 /  10  20   0  10
Clovis..........................  96  68  96  68 /  10  10   0  20
Portales........................  97  69  97  68 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  96  69  98  69 /  10  10   5  10
Roswell......................... 100  71 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  91  64  93  64 /  30  10  20  20
Elk.............................  89  61  90  62 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24